Week Ahead: RBI Policy, Trump tariffs, Q4 Results, inflation data, among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market ended last week sharply lower, snapping a two-week winning streak, dragged by global trade tensions due to Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, which spooked investors across the domestic and global markets.
Next, investors will monitor key market triggers in the second week of the new fiscal (FY26). Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the first set of March quarter earnings for fiscal 2024-25 (Q3FY25), global tariff announcements, macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction in the second week of April.
Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 were dragged primarily by weak global cues and renewed concerns over a trade war. The Nifty 50 ended the week at 22,904.40, while the Sensex settled near the week’s low at 75,364.69. During the week, the BSE Sensex tanked 2,050.23 points or 2.64 per cent, while the NSE Nifty declined 614.8 points or 2.61 per cent.
Also Read: Trump tariffs: Why is the US President confident of Fed rate cuts despite Jerome Powell’s inflation warning?
On Friday, the 30-share BSE index had slumped over 900 points to crash below the 76,000 level due to an across-the-board sell-off. A steep decline in the US stock market further dampened hopes of a recovery back home.
The sell-off was triggered by the US President’s decision to impose steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27 per cent levy on select Indian goods. “This move reignited fears of a global trade war, prompting broad-based risk aversion across emerging markets. Market sentiment further weakened amid rising US Treasury yields and lingering inflationary concerns, which dampened hopes of an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
According to market analysts, volatility remained elevated, with the India VIX index rising significantly, reflecting heightened caution ahead of quarterly earnings and ongoing election-related developments.
Also Read: Goldman Sachs slashes crude oil price target by 5.5% amid tariff woes after Brent, WTI hit four-year low on OPEC+ supply
“The new fiscal commenced on a subdued note, driven by the imposition of higher-than-anticipated tariffs by the US. Sectors like IT and metals have underperformed relative to the broader market, reflecting growing concerns over the US economy’s outlook and retaliatory trade actions by other countries,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.
“Investors will monitor any countermeasures implemented by global trade partners, which could further exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The cautious sentiment is reflected in the sustained rally in gold and bond prices, underscoring a pronounced shift toward safe-haven assets,” added Nair.
This week, the primary market will not witness any action, with no new initial public offerings (IPO) or listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic and global macroeconomic data, along with corporate earnings.
Here are the key triggers for the Indian stock market in the coming week:
RBI MPC Meeting
The RBI’s rate-setting monetary policy panel will begin deliberations this week on its first policy verdict for FY26. The outcome of the MPC meeting and the interest rate decision on April 9 will be a major market trigger.
It will provide key insights into the central bank’s policy stance and India’s economic outlook. D-Street experts foresee another 25 bps interest rate cut. According to analysts, a favourable outcome could benefit rate-sensitive sectors.
Also Read: TCS Q4 Update: India’s largest IT major to declare March quarter results on THIS date, consider final dividend for FY25
Q4 Results
Adding to the action, the Q4 earnings season kicks off with IT giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which will announce its results on Thursday, April 10, 2025. The software services giant may also declare a final dividend for FY25 on the same day.
“Market focus is gradually shifting toward the upcoming corporate earnings season. The initial outlook remains subdued, with the risk of further downward revisions to earnings growth, largely due to tepid demand and continued margin pressures,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Ltd.
“The IT sector is expected to report soft numbers, and investor sentiment will hinge heavily on management commentary. Persistent global growth concerns and the potential for elevated inflation in the US may lead companies to delay discretionary IT spending, dampening the sector’s near-term outlook,” added Nair.
Also Read: Wipro Q4 Update: India’s fourth-largest IT major to declare March quarter results on THIS date; stock sheds 18% YTD
Macro data: IIP, retail inflation
India’s key macroeconomic indicators—the index of industrial production (IIP) and the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation for March 2025 will be released on Friday, April 11. However, retail inflation data and IIP are released on the 12th of each month. Since April 12 is a Saturday, the IIP data will be released on April 11, the previous working day.
According to D-Street analysts, the CPI inflation for March will also be released on April 11. However, the Statistics Ministry said in its statement last month that the ‘’next date of release for March 2025 CPI is April 14, 2025 (Monday) or next working day in case of holiday.’’ Hence, according to the government’s timeline, the CPI inflation data for March may be released on April 15, since April 14 is marked as a holiday to observe Ambedkar Jayanti.
FII Activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned aggressive sellers, pulling out approximately ₹13,730 crore from the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some support with net inflows of around ₹5,632 crore. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) turned sellers in April.
“The trend of FPIs turning buyers in March changed in early April when FPIs turned sellers again. A major trend reversal in global stock markets happened after US President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. The reciprocal tariffs came much steeper than expected,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd.
Also Read: FPI exodus persists in March despite ₹31,000 crore inflows in final week. Will the trend reverse going ahead?
The 10 per cent base line tariff on all imports, the 25 per cent tariff on all automobile imports and steep reciprocal tariffs on most countries is expected to raise inflation in the US and there are concerns that the US economy might even slip into stagflation. “This triggered massive selling in the US markets, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost above 10 per cent in two days. The Chinese retaliation to US tariffs has been quick,” said the analyst.
“A full-blown trade war will impact global trade and global economic growth. The steep decline in the dollar index to 102 is favourable for capital flows to emerging economies like India. However FPIs are likely to be in a wait and watch mode before turning buyers. The total FPI selling in India up to April 5 stood at ₹10,354 crore,” added Dr VK Vijayakumar.
Global Cues, Trump tariffs
The coming week is crucial and packed with key global triggers. With tariff-related tensions escalating, global investors will closely track any further developments on that front. The week will be volatile for global markets after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs worldwide. Fears of an all-out trade war and a global economic recession have spooked investors.
Broadly, market participants will closely watch the US inflation numbers along with the US FOMC minutes. Here’s the event outlook for the week:
-The minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday, April 9, providing key insights into the US Fed’s outlook on interest rates, inflation, and the overall economic condition.
Also Read: Donald Trump urges ‘perfect time’ for rate cut as Jerome Powell warns of ’larger than expected’ tariff-driven inflation
-China’s March CPI inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, April 10. The data will offer insights into the Asian country’s inflation trends and domestic demand conditions.
-The US inflation and core CPI data will be released on Thursday, April 10. The US Federal Reserve closely monitors inflation indicators, which play a critical role in shaping monetary policy.
-The February UK GDP data, scheduled for release on Friday, April 11, will provide key insights into the UK’s economic performance. This data is significant as the UK is a major trading partner and investor in India.
Corporate Action
Shares of CRISIL and a few others will trade ex-dividend in the coming week, starting from April 7, 2025. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus. Check full list here
Technical View
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50’s immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door towards 22,100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone. Read full technical analysis here
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
