Week Ahead: Q4 results, inflation data, Trump tariffs, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market last experienced heightened volatility due to US tariff-led trade war jitters. However, a sharp rebound after the 90-day pause on US tariffs helped trim losses, ending the week with a modest decline.
Next, investors will monitor key market triggers in the third week of the new fiscal (FY26). India’s retail inflation data for March, the next set of March quarter earnings for fiscal 2024-25 (Q3FY25), global tariff announcements, macroeconomic data, and global cues will dictate the market direction in the third week of April.
Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 fell declined for the second consecutive week after investors grappled with uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. Still, the market pared most of its weekly losses after the 90-day pause on hefty “retaliatory” tariffs led to a rebound.
The blue-chip Nifty 50 index rose 1.92 per cent to close at 22,828.55 on Friday, while the BSE Sensex gained 1.77 per cent to 75,157.26. On the weekly front, the BSE benchmark gauge declined 207.43 points or 0.27 per cent. The Nifty dipped 75.9 points or 0.33 per cent.
The NSE Nifty 50 index initially plunged to levels last seen in early June 2024. During the week, it touched an intra-week low of 21,743.65 before staging a strong recovery. The realty sector emerged as the top laggard among sectoral indices, while defensive FMCG stocks outperformed.
“Concerns over a widening current account deficit and sustained foreign portfolio outflows weighed on the Indian rupee, which depreciated by 0.78 per cent to 86.18 against the US dollar. Market volatility spiked sharply, with the India VIX surging by 46 per cent,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
The sharp swings in the market were largely driven by escalating global trade tensions following the US imposition of steep tariffs on several of its key trading partners, including China, the EU, and India. In a retaliatory move, China imposed tariffs of up to 125 per cent on the US, prompting the US to escalate duties further to 145 per cent.
“The Indian stock market has entered the result season with a subdued expectation. The initial results from the IT major acknowledge the impact of trade tensions and expect a delay in discretionary spending,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd.
“The supportive domestic environment, with ease in interest rates and a benign inflation trajectory, encourages investors to have a balanced portfolio to aid in better risk-reward in the long term. We expect inflation to moderate because of cooling food prices, allowing the RBI to be accommodative. We expect caution to prevail due to the holiday-led truncated week,” added Nair.
This week, the primary market will not witness any action, with no new initial public offerings (IPO) or listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The holiday-shortened week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic and global macroeconomic data with corporate earnings.
Here are the key triggers for the Indian stock market in the coming week:
Q4 results, retail inflation data
On the domestic side, the spotlight will also be on corporate earnings, with heavyweights such as Wipro and Infosys from the IT sector and private banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank scheduled to announce their Q4 results. Domestically, the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation and retail inflation data are set to be released this week.
FII Activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued a selling spree, offloading approximately ₹20,911 crore from the cash segment. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) lent some support, with net inflows amounting to around ₹21,955 crore. Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said, “The turbulence in global stock markets following Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has been impacting FPI investments in India.”
FPIs who had turned buyers in India from March 20 to 27 have again turned sellers during this turbulence. In April, up to 11th, FPIs sold equity for ₹31988 crores through the stock market. After the resumption of this selling, the total FPI selling in the equity market in 2025 has increased to ₹1,61,669 crore.”
“A clear pattern in FPI strategy will emerge after the ongoing chaos dies. In the medium term, FIIs will likely turn buyers in India since the US and China are heading for an inevitable slowdown due to the ongoing trade war. Even in an unfavourable global scenario, India can grow by six per cent in FY 26. This, along with better earnings growth expected in FY 26, can attract FPI investments into India once the dust in the market settles down,” he said.
Global Cues
The initial sell-off was sparked by the US announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which sent shockwaves through global markets. China’s retaliatory measures worsened the situation. However, a sense of relief returned after the US deferred the implementation of tariffs for all nations except China.
Global markets are set to be volatile during the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Sentiment will remain sensitive to further developments on the US-China tariff front. Last week, the trade war between China and the US intensified, causing market turmoil. On the global front, major macroeconomic data from the US, UK, and China is set to be released.
“The intensity of the US-China trade war will be crucially viewed by the market, which can have the potential to offset the impact of the current pause on trade tariffs on other emerging markets…The focus will be on the outcome of the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between India and the US, which will add more colour to the trade potential of the domestic market,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Ltd.
Corporate Action
Shares of Hexaware Technologies Ltd, Hexaware Technologies Ltd, and others will trade ex-dividend in the coming week, starting from Monday, April 14. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus. Check full list here
Technical View
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 is testing its 20-day exponential moving average (DEMA) around the 22,900 mark. A sustained close above this level could open the door for a further rally towards 23,400. Read full technical analysis here
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
