The stock market is looking up. It could get ugly again.

The Trump tariffs whacked stocks. Wall Street knew they were coming, but an average rate of almost 30% on trillions of dollars worth of imports was a gut punch.

After almost two weeks, the market is recovering after the S&P 500 dropped 19% in six weeks—from its record close of 6144 on Feb. 19 to 4982 on April 8. Today, it has bounced 9% to just over 5400, roughly the middle of its range, on a 90-day tariffs pause by the White House.

So the market seems, at a glance, fairly calm—but not exactly. It could get rattled again.

For investors, the best approach right now: Don’t be fooled by the lull. There’s still tremendous uncertainty about tariffs, especially surrounding China, and how much they might hurt the economy.

The doubt is pervasive. Because of the tariffs, Americans worry about higher prices and a recession that would costs jobs—so they’ll probably pull back on their spending.

Companies rightly worry about falling demand and disappointing sales. They wouldn’t be able to cut all costs, so profit margins would shrink and expected earnings would drop by double digits.

So, the state of business in the U.S. is anything but business as usual. The market still has plenty of economic and corporate news to absorb—and there’s no way of knowing whether the tremors will be more like 3.4 on the Richter scale or 6.7.

Trade negotiations are an example. The U.S. and China, American’s third largest trading partner, aren’t even talking yet.

“US-China talks will remain protracted and turbulent, with major implications for global macro risk,” writes Kim Wallace, 22V Research’s head of Washington Policy.

If the two countries dig in their heels, the market would go back to assuming a harsher economic impact. A drop to the S&P 500’s low represents an 8% fall.

Even without rolling back tariffs, though, there’s plenty of worry about the economy. The U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for its third consecutive month last week, hitting its lowest level this year. The drop indicates that businesses probably will invest less and will hire less, dynamics that could drag the economy into a recession.

March’s jobs report was strong, but the Trump tariffs mania came in April so the numbers didn’t reflect any possible fallout. Today, economists expect that April will bring about slower—but still growing—hiring.

But not everybody is sold. Mizuho’s chief U.S. economist Steve Ricchiuto warns of rising unemployment and forecasts close to zero economic growth. Growth has been a touch over 2% this year.

Damage to profits won’t show up in this first-quarter earnings season, either. The big banks—JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America—have beaten earnings estimates in the past week.

But more important, none issued second-quarter guidance because they don’t have a clear enough picture for loan demand, capital markets, and investment banking activity.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, “The economy is facing considerable turbulence. We hope for the best but prepare the firm for a wide range of scenarios.”

That’s why markets have to wait another quarter or two. Until then, it won’t be clear exactly how much profits will disappoint.

The full extent of the profit damage also won’t show up until next year. That’s mostly because analysts expect first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500, in aggregate, to grow 7% year over year, keeping alive the prospect of growth for the full year overall.

In 2026, earnings could look uglier. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson estimates the index’s aggregate earnings per share will land 8% below current expectations. As the market searches for the bottom in earnings, it’s vulnerable to another fall.

“The main risk to equities is a further deterioration in earnings and/or corporate confidence,” writes Wilson, who is chief U.S. equity strategist.

That’s why today’s VIX—the Cboe Volatility Index—is high, at just below 30. The market sees a wide range of possible stock prices. Any economic disappointment would translate to a steep decline in stocks. In contrast, when times are good, the VIX sits in the teens or even low double digits.

“We would expect market pricing to continue to lean back and forth between both outcomes—i.e., expect volatility to persist within the aforementioned trading range,” Wilson writes.

That’s why the average investor needs to have a little patience when considering when to buy stocks. The S&P 500 could easily see a crush of buyers come in at around 4900, where it stabilized weeks ago. At that level, the risks are more adequately reflected.

From there, the market can trudge higher if it expects the Fed to cut rates again, which would shore up the economy. That scenario came on our radar screen only a week ago.

That may be the best news of all—and it would make stocks look attractive after another drop.

Buying too much today isn’t the best idea.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com