Reliance Industries Q4 results today: Jio to Retail — 5 things to watch out for in Mukesh Ambani-led company’s earnings

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led oil-to-telecom conglomerate, is set to report its Q4 results today. Along with the Reliance Q4 results, the company will also declare its earnings for the full financial year ending 31 March 2025.

Reliance Industries Q4 results are expected to be mixed, with modest growth anticipated in the telecom and retail segments, while the oil & gas business could face headwinds from elevated crude oil prices.

“Reliance Industries Q4 results are expected to remain stable. However, operating profit may come under pressure due to higher crude oil prices. The oil and gas business could stay flat, while Jio and the retail segment may post some growth. Overall, it is likely to be a mixed and stable quarter, with no major surprises expected. Markets are pricing in a tepid Q4 performance,” said Avinash Gorakshakar, the head of research at Profitmart Securities.

Here are 5 key things to watch out for in Reliance Q4 results today:

1. Reliance Consolidated Sales, EBITDA

Reliance Industries’ consolidated revenue is expected to rise 2.6% QoQ to ₹2,46,263 crore, compared to ₹2,39,986 crore in the previous quarter.

Consolidated EBITDA is projected to increase marginally by 0.5% to ₹44,002 crore, versus ₹43,789 crore in Q3FY25, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. However, the EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 38 basis points to 17.9% from 18.2% QoQ.

2. O2C Business Performance

Reliance’s Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment is likely to post a 14% YoY decline in EBITDA, while remaining flat sequentially. The decline is attributed to weaker product cracks and lower petrochemical spreads, as per estimates by Nuvama Institutional Equities. Benchmark Singapore Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) have dropped 58% YoY, reflecting the global weakness in product cracks.

The Oil & Gas business is expected to report a 9% YoY drop in EBITDA and an 8% decline QoQ, primarily due to reduced output from the KG-D6 block. This comes despite a 2% YoY increase in deepwater gas prices, which remained flat sequentially.

4. Reliance Jio

Reliance Jio is expected to report a 1.5% QoQ rise in standalone revenue to ₹30,058 crore, driven by subscriber additions and a slight improvement in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Jio’s ARPU is estimated to grow 0.7% QoQ to ₹204.8 from ₹203.3, aided by the ongoing benefits of the July 2024 tariff hike, despite Q4FY25 having two fewer days.

EBITDA for Jio is projected to grow 1.6% QoQ to ₹16,056 crore, with margins expanding by 10 basis points to 53.4%.

5. Reliance Retail

The retail segment is expected to deliver a steady performance in Q4. EBITDA is estimated to grow 11% YoY, supported by increased store footprint, better margins, and improved realisations.

Key Triggers to Watch

Going forward, investor attention will be on management commentary around margin outlook, developments in new energy initiatives, the timeline for potential listings of Jio and Reliance Retail, the crude oil price outlook, 5G rollout strategy, retail network expansion, and updates on KG-D6 production trends and future exploration plans.

At 9:40 AM, Reliance share price was trading 0.99% higher at ₹1,314.50 apiece on the BSE.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.