From Swiggy, Zomato, Paytm to Nykaa: What to expect from new-age tech stocks’ Q4 results?

Brokerage JM Financial, in its preview for Q4FY25, indicated that variations in corporate performances across the internet sector are anticipated due to specific trends within each segment. Although growth in food delivery for Eternal (Zomato) and Swiggy is predicted to slow down, substantial growth in quick commerce (QC) is expected to be driven by aggressive expansion of dark stores. Likewise, while margins in food delivery are forecasted to improve, the heightened competitive environment and ongoing store expansion may negatively affect QC margins.

Nykaa’s Beauty and Personal Care (BPC) segment has maintained its growth momentum, and there has been a slight improvement in the Fashion segment, indicating consistent profitability. FirstCry’s performance in India across multiple channels is likely to remain subdued, with an emphasis on cost control in its international operations. Info Edge reported robust growth in billings across its recruitment services, 99acres, and other areas, as noted by the brokerage.

JM Financial remarked that while new business premium growth for PB Fintech is expected to normalize because of a decline in ULIPs, renewal rates are likely to keep the momentum going. Paytm is projected to experience a flat quarter on a sequential basis, with an increasing proportion of merchant loans and operational leverage boosting margins. CarTrade is anticipated to show substantial year-over-year growth along with corresponding improvements in margins.

Within the travel technology sector, TBO Tek’s growth is expected to decelerate due to the negative impact of Ramadan festivities in major source markets and ongoing challenges in air ticketing. In contrast, Ixigo is projected to have a strong quarter across all segments, benefiting from the Kumbh festivities.

Delhivery continues to encounter challenges in the express parcel segment because of the scaling of Valmo and QC, but the acquisition of Ecom Express may provide the necessary boost. Meanwhile, Blackbuck is likely to report a typical quarter of business, with steady growth and enhanced margins. Although the recent market correction has made many companies in the internet sector more attractive, potential catalysts in Delhivery and Paytm suggest they warrant immediate attention.

Financial snapshot

Eternal

At a consolidated level, the brokerage anticipates that reported EBITDA will fall to ₹0.6 billion compared to ₹1.6 billion in the third quarter, while PAT is projected to decrease to ₹7 million from ₹590 million in the third quarter, primarily due to increased losses in Blinkit.

Swiggy

The brokerage anticipates that on a consolidated basis, the reported EBITDA and PAT will result in losses of ₹8.55 billion and ₹9.25 billion, respectively, compared to losses of ₹7.26 billion and ₹8.03 billion in the third quarter.

Nykaa

The brokerage forecasts a 27% year-over-year increase in total GMV, but a 9.8% decline from the previous quarter. The core BPC is anticipated to rise by 27.8% YoY, showing a 12.4% drop compared to the last quarter. eB2B + NM is projected to grow by 55% YoY, marking a 14.1% increase from the previous quarter, while the Fashion segment expects a 17.3% YoY growth, down 9.1% QoQ.

“We anticipate revenue to growth of 23.9% YoY (-8.9% QoQ), and expect EBITDA margin to improve by 26bps YoY (-36bps QoQ). We expect PAT to grow ~129% YoY to ₹159 mn,” said the brokerage.

Delhivery

As per the brokerage, Express Parcel revenue is projected to increase by approximately 3% on a year-over-year basis, while PTL/TL revenue is anticipated to rise by around 22% and 9%, respectively. The brokerage forecasts that Supply Chain Services will experience growth of about 17% year-over-year.

Paytm

According to the brokerage’s report, it is anticipated that on a consolidated basis, revenue (including a ₹1bn UPI incentive) will increase by approximately 8% quarter-on-quarter. The contribution margin is projected to improve by 370 basis points quarter-on-quarter, driven by a greater proportion of financial services in the overall mix, achieved through higher take-rates from the DLG model in merchant loans. Improved operating leverage resulting from decreased employee costs is expected to enable Paytm to achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity in the fourth quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.1%.

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